So, how worried should you be about the midterms? If the other guys win, will it be the end of the world and democracy as we know it? Will Trump take over the world? Will the Democrats extend voting rights to non-citizens? Will the country collapse? Will the dollar die? Will the dish run away with the spoon?
The answers are: not very, no, definitely not, not likely, absolutely not, nope and yes, the dish and spoon will elope.
Better answer: CALM DOWN!
Look the midterms are important -they always are – and maybe a little more important than normal. But the American Constitution is not fragile. Those checks and balances you’ve heard so much about do work, just in the messiest way possible, but all that matters is that they do work. It’s not easy to destroy the United States of America, not even from within.
But boy can we ever make a fuss in the attempt!
So, no, if your side loses, it will not be nearly as bad as the media is portraying it.
I’m on the conservative side and there’s a ton of hand wringing going on, worried that Trump won’t be able to get the job done if we lose both the House and Senate. That’s actually kinda dumb. First off, President Trump knows how to sign an executive order and knows where his pen is. I expect he’ll start burying the Democrats in paper. Sorting that out in the courts will be a slog our Democrat friends won’t enjoy.
Second, the chances of a significant sweep are remote. It’s dubious they can take the Senate but they have little chance of a significant gain in the House so they would at best hold the House by a tiny margin. That’s not good for getting stuff done and it’s not necessarily going to slow down Trump who favors executive orders anyway.
Third, another impeachment would probably split the Democrat party. A slim majority isn’t going to successfully get a removal and most of the junior reps aren’t going to want to go home and try to explain a pathetic political ploy to their constituents. All the idiots that want to try that are likely to be Democrat Socialists which will exacerbate the existing schism.
Now, that doesn’t mean Republicans shouldn’t care. A Democrat majority is going to spell nothing but headaches for the next two years. No one bats a thousand – and no one bats zero, either. Having a majority, even a slim one, will give the Democrats some wins that Republicans would prefer they not get. But it won’t be the end of the Republic or even the American government.
And what of the poor Democrats if the Republicans hold the House and the Senate? Well, it won’t end the Democrat Party. They seem kinda intent on doing that all by themselves. Nor will it end democracy as we know it – y’all do know we’re not a democracy, right? Democratic republic, thank you very much. Anyhow, Trump’s not going to take over or end civil rights or any of the other craziness that the Left keeps hollering about. He’s had the House and Senate for two years. You’d think he’d have done it by now.
Now, it might spell trouble for the Democrat Party but only because of their internal schism. Losses tend to lead to finger pointing and lots of yelling just when they need hugs and reconciliation. But I honestly think it will just exacerbate what’s already going on in that party and not precipitate a full implosion. Probably, anyway.
Still, they’re better off with a squeaker win than a loss. I just don’t know if they can get it. The Senate is a lost cause. Heck, they just lost Pennsylvania without an election in a bizarre, unforced error. Seriously, when you are only a few seats behind the opposing party why would you tick off one of your most popular senators to the point that he leaves? Oh, wait, Democrats.
Still dumb.
The House is at least possible but it’s not going to be a blue wave. They’ll be lucky to get a blue squirt. I know about the Presidential Approval numbers – I believe we call that ‘cope’. Approval numbers are the single more useless metric ever devised. Trump isn’t on the ballot. Midterms are more referendums on the parties than on the presidency. Last I looked at the Democrat numbers, they were abysmal. Granted, those polls are just as pointlessly bad but if we’re going to use poor metrics, may as well use ’em all.
The Democrat infighting and inability to make a campaign about anything other than ‘not Trump’ are better indicators. That kind of floundering before an election rarely portends anything good.
But, who knows? This is a messy political time and there are so many moving parts that I’m not confident about any predictions yet. Normally, by now the indications would be firming up and it would be a clearer picture, but this time? We just had our first ever midterm convention – will that have an effect? Probably but unprecedented means we don’t have a good idea of what that effect will be.
What we do know is that whatever happens, the US will survive, the sky will not fall and everything will be okay.
Messy, noisy, rambunctious and a little weird, but ultimately, okay. That’s just normal American politics. Buy your ticket, climb in and hang on!
Maybe someday we should think about trading in the roller coaster for a merry go round?
Nah, where’s the fun in that?
