This is the official mea culpa – I was wrong. It’s been a long time since I got one so far wrong but as of this writing, my prediction of a squeaker with the Republicans retaining the House and Senate is WAY wrong.

Look, if you’re here for perfection, you have the wrong address. If you’re here for my whiny analysis of why I got it so wrong, you’re out of luck. I never claimed perfection. I will discuss what went wrong with my analysis but not immediately. I need time to consider the matter. No point in just giving a bunch of excuses that turn out to also be wrong.

Nor would a ‘why did it happen’ analysis be particularly useful – yet. You’ve probably heard all the usual suspects being grilled by the media and commentators. Maybe the pundits were right about the economic pressures – even a broken clock, right? Or maybe it was a number of factors. I’m gonna think about it before spouting off.

At least about the why – for today’s spouting I will be addressing the how bad questions.

Those of you setting your hair on fire and heading for the window, stop it. First off, that’s not even hair spray – it’s window cleaner and it doesn’t burn. Second, we’re on the first floor and that window is painted shut.

Calm down.

I was still a Democrat when the Republicans swept the 1994 Midterms, picking up 54 House and 8 Senate seats. It was not a fun day to be a Democrat. It also did not end the world.

Back then in them olden days bipartisan cooperation still happened once in awhile. As a result, Clinton lost out of a lot of his agenda but not all of it. There was much backroom bickering but both Clinton and Gingrich walked away with more goodies than either had the right.

That is not going to happen with Trump. That’s a type of American politicking we don’t really see right now. But that’s not a bad thing…

Would you please stop doing that?! It’s an electric oven and it’s not even installed! Get your head out of there!

Good grief! Would you calm down? The midterms don’t matter like they used to – this isn’t going to be the end. Just a normal hiccup in American Politics. We’re Americans! We don’t do ‘little hiccups’!

Yes, I mean it. Trump hasn’t gotten most of his agenda through Congress. He’s been relying on Executive Orders and court cases. There’s no reason that will change.

The Democrats have 54 Senate seats. It takes 60 to override a veto. They don’t have the numbers. We’ve been playing this game for two years. The House passes stuff and it dies in the Senate. Well, now we’re going to add the veto as a dance step.

Of course it will be messy. Welcome to normality, American Style. Messy is our superpower.

That’s as of today. There are a lot of outstanding races and going to be a LOT of DOJ involvement in some of the really suspicious races. In 1994, we had two Democrats switch parties – that’s a possibility this go around but I’m dubious of it actually happening.

Why? Well, because the forces in play are different today from then. The Democrats are much weaker.

I know they just won. So what? The important part of that will be why they won, which I’m not ready to address, and even more importantly, can they deliver the goods that their constituents want? That last one is tough without a veto proof majority in the Senate or a good negotiator who can work with Trump. The Democrats have neither.

That little schism in the party is about to get its big time stress test. The DSA types want all the goodies for their base. The leadership would like to survive 2028. These are mutually exclusive things. Fireworks are likely to result. Maybe very big ones and Trump isn’t going to be inclined to sign anything sent to him by a Democrat congress. This could go very badly.

Or not – I’m an analyst, not a fortune teller. It’s way too early to predict how this all will shake out.

Impeachment? I almost hope so. If the economy is the driving issue, Democrats will be hard pressed to explain to voters why they wasted time on yet another impossible impeachment knowing full well they don’t have the votes for a removal. If they actually succeeded, it would rip both parties apart. Trump’s grip on the Republican Party should be strong enough to prevent that – so how do Democrats explain not putting all their efforts into economic relief instead?

Yeah, I saw the ‘Democrats are going to deliberately sabotage the economy to blame Trump’ nonsense. Yes, it absolutely IS nonsense now. The Democrats control Congress which controls the money. They’d catch the blame, not Trump.

You do know that those are pansies, right? They’re edible.

Sure, I’d have preferred that the Republicans had won. Less embarrassing that way for me and more to my political liking. But setbacks, even big ones, aren’t disasters. We’ll have to see how it plays out but I doubt the Democrats can do much damage in two years.

Oh, didn’t I mention it? The Supreme Court basically gave Trump the keys to the kingdom a few months ago. Remember that nonsense about Trump not being allowed to fire someone? Yeah, well, the Supreme Court said that yes, as the Chief Executive the President can fire any member of the Executive Branch, even if Congress says he can’t. Here’s a link to a lawyer who can explain the fancy legal side better than I can but it amounts to there are no ‘independent’ executive entities – and Trump can fire whomever he pleases and Congress doesn’t have the power to stop him.

Okay, yes, exclusions apply – it’s the Supreme Court, they can’t make anything simple. But the exclusions aren’t going to protect many agency heads that decide that they don’t have to listen to the sitting President. Democrats have been a large part of the expansion of presidential power over the years and now the leash is off.

Oopsie.

Oh sure, the Republicans helped. The Patriot Act wasn’t exactly limiting. Plenty of blame to go around. But a lot fewer flunkies who can safely trip up a President – it’s a huge win. And it’s very likely to play out in some unpleasant ways in the next two years.

That’s a butter knife. Feeling better?

I can’t promise. I could be wrong again. But I’m more often right and I’m not having to guess at voter behavior. The Constitution is a written document and it spells out exactly which branch has what powers. Much easier to anticipate when you know what rules we’re playing by. And no, I wouldn’t be saying this if I thought I was wrong about it.

You don’t get Size Perfect with me, but I try hard to come in Size Honest.

Well, no, there are no buses out here – and you came in a car…

I’ll give you your keys back – next week.

Good grief, it’s just an election. One loss does not a trend make.

It’s a good thing you’re an idiot. That’s a kid on a bicycle – stop trying to be a speed bump!

Whippersnapper.