Give me a break – how should I know?!?!

Predictions I can do – fortune telling, you need someone else.

Okay, okay, I’ll get on with it. No sense of humor these days…

So, who’s going to win the midterms? The candidates with the most votes – oh, you meant which party will come out on top. Be more specific, will ya?

The GOP. Nice seeing you, don’t trip on your way out…

You want details, too? Would you like a cookie with that?

Well, tough. You’re going to have to settle for details – how’d you think I could hand you a cookie through a computer?

Avoiding the question? Me?

Yep, pretty much. The thing is, this cycle is such a mess that it’s really hard to decide what indicators mean anything. Polls are worthless and probably poisoned to an extent. AI bots are everywhere so it’s harder than usual to find what actual people are saying online. The GOP is so insanely ahead in fundraising that I’m bound to underestimate the Democrats – which is poor analysis. The legal cases are flying fast and furious – Fulton County Georgia just had a dismissal yesterday!

The hilarious and pointless drivel about conservatives not talking about Trump enough – just as an aside, why would they need to? The Lamestream media has that covered. The White House Press Pool brouhaha that is about to become an anti-trust case in the DOJ only makes hay for the Democrat base, what’s left of it. Hey, Democrats! We’re almost halfway through October! Get on with surprising us already!

Sadly, I think those were the surprises.

So, why DO I think the GOP will squeak by? Basically, the map favors them after all that redistricting and the legal impediments make ballot harvesting outside blue states nearly impossible. I’m no longer convinced that the majority of Americans identify as Democrats.

I’ve seen the 30/30/30 split chart – it’s dumb. Most of that middle thirty – the Independents – are actually split and caucusing with the major parties. The Democrats are still hemorrhaging voter registrations two years after the last election – that’s not a clear majority party – that’s a mess.

That matters because the Democrats no longer have the acumen to win in a political fight that isn’t based on turnout. They lost that decades ago. They know how to demonize, not debate. They win on emotion, not reason. Trouble with that is eventually, crisis campaigning wears out even your most steadfast voters. People are just sick of the constant finger pointing and that includes the Democrat Rank and File.

The Rank and File is the most critical part of a major party’s structure. They are the majority of members of a party – sixty to eighty percent, depending. When they get sick of how their party is behaving, they don’t immediately switch parties – they usually just stay home. When a significant part of your party stays home, you lose. When a number of your rank and file are switching registration on top of that you’re almost certain to lose.

Any other cycle and I’d say case closed. As it is, I think we’re looking at a squeaker in the House either way. Democrats are near desperate and Republicans suddenly decided to be a real party again so they are swinging for the fences. Those forces make for messy elections. There will be upsets. I just doubt there will be enough to save the Democrats.

Oh, the Republicans are perfectly capable of shooting themselves in the foot. They proved that for thirty years. Thing is, nothing seems to be aimed that way. Despite what the media has been crowing, the Iran War is a nothingburger for the MAGA movement. That’s not surprising – populist movements are highly focused. Trump is mostly delivering and that’s enough to keep their loyalty. They weren’t expecting perfection – they wanted results. Trump has been giving them that.

The corruption allegations are shaky and a few likely to end up with Democrat operatives on the wrong side of a courtroom. Nothing solid and no one is ready for a Russiagate, 2.0. Even Democrats aren’t interested in these allegations much. Crying wolf has consequences.

The Senate? The GOP isn’t in real danger of losing it. I think they might pick up a seat or two but even if they lose a couple, they will likely hold the Senate.

What that means going forward we’ll discuss after the election. I’m done with fortune telling. My best guess is that the GOP squeaks by in the House and holds the Senate. If I’m wrong, it won’t matter nearly as much as you have been told – the Supreme Court reshuffled that deck. But that’s a story for a different day.

For now, go vote. That’s your job.

That, and get off my lawn, you danged whippersnappers!